Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 830.662900 945.327635 1075.918579 1236.917068 1431.811000 1662.372983 1.959193e+03
2024-10-27 647.214224 786.227648 959.514674 1195.808108 1516.803446 1948.853915 2.594966e+03
2024-11-03 582.106308 736.437455 940.173064 1237.145747 1674.108679 2320.359124 3.406423e+03
2024-11-10 529.606838 692.178012 917.036350 1263.633671 1810.187905 2690.414846 4.344079e+03
2024-11-17 490.230801 658.277675 900.011375 1291.025539 1946.794572 3089.382635 5.481749e+03
2024-11-24 446.586459 612.138454 857.574950 1269.885290 1996.517651 3348.244356 6.459351e+03
2024-12-01 419.609160 586.968560 842.655003 1288.996206 2117.168344 3769.723128 7.999415e+03
2024-12-08 399.641880 569.905733 837.610816 1322.725024 2270.223412 4302.398206 1.013802e+04
2024-12-15 376.639044 545.596557 817.590693 1326.095311 2363.712427 4735.075119 1.231047e+04
2024-12-22 351.388876 515.336103 784.237773 1299.692636 2389.750232 5017.149920 1.423356e+04
2024-12-29 336.488717 500.568479 775.593874 1318.550315 2517.029493 5601.497381 1.781369e+04
2025-01-05 314.174957 471.685702 739.439645 1278.345482 2502.314561 5796.603846 2.002102e+04
2025-01-12 294.831752 447.777610 712.426296 1258.354776 2544.903607 6219.147697 2.411466e+04
2025-01-19 273.659840 419.413642 675.184766 1213.289081 2519.987595 6440.511916 2.766090e+04
2025-01-26 266.154295 413.975137 679.398518 1256.301370 2729.807851 7546.467930 3.927406e+04
2025-02-02 257.240825 405.265703 676.438837 1283.098691 2905.132877 8652.165241 5.498450e+04
2025-02-09 249.189431 397.407511 674.215161 1311.126312 3093.230904 9954.238296 7.954169e+04
2025-02-16 236.648445 380.408790 652.282474 1289.527934 3127.716813 10623.123873 1.010789e+05
2025-02-23 229.223131 372.359809 647.614168 1309.041118 3298.077415 12092.723827 1.511709e+05
2025-03-02 223.692881 367.443828 648.849810 1343.474541 3530.314742 14138.970505 2.533423e+05
2025-03-09 215.806756 357.478661 638.586862 1346.916111 3658.147961 15745.557848 3.962189e+05
2025-03-16 205.968546 343.140820 617.849166 1319.959653 3668.972936 16637.312933 5.530943e+05
2025-03-23 200.526827 337.045564 614.397589 1339.212427 3862.556646 19086.681892 1.087187e+06